Analysis: Ted Cruz’s chances are now “equivalent to winning the Powerball lottery.”
From The Washington Times:
“Ted Cruz’s loss in the Arizona primary Tuesday puts mathematics squarely on the side of Donald Trump in the race to capture the Republican presidential nomination, an ongoing state-by-state delegate allocation analysis by The Washington Times indicates.
“Mr. Trump’s win in Arizona means Mr. Cruz must win 90 percent of the remaining delegates after March 22 to get to 1,237. The chance of this happening is equivalent to winning the Powerball lottery,” said former Republican National Committee Treasurer Randy Pullen, who was also the state party chairman in Arizona.
Randy Evans, a Standing Rules Committee member of the Republican National Committee, said projections put Mr. Trump about 75 to 100 delegates short of a majority after the final primaries and caucuses in June.
“Remember after March 31, only one-third of the delegates will be left to award because two-thirds will have been picked in state party contests,” Mr. Evans said. “With each passing primary, the challenge becomes increasingly insurmountable, absent a total meltdown throwing the convention wide open. Right now, that appears unlikely.”
Some veteran election observers flatly predict that Mr. Trump is on a march to get the 1,237-delegate majority, and even those who disagree conclude he is on track for a total so close to a majority that he is, for all practical purposes, assured of a first-ballot win.
Even a brokered convention rests on an assumption that may not pan out — that delegates pledged to Sen. Marco Rubio and others who have suspended their campaigns will not vote for Mr. Trump now that they are free agents.
Mr. Pullen said that based on his analysis, “after New York on April 19,Cruz will be mathematically eliminated, except for the unbound delegates and delegates of candidates who have suspended their campaigns.”