With Ted Cruz and his GOP Establishment allies doing all they can to steal the election from Trump the prevailing thought is there will be a contested (open) convention. Donald Trump has said he thinks he will have the delegates necessary for the nomination. The NY Times says that Trump getting 1,237 is not Mission Impossible. The NY Time’s outlines a path where Trump can pull if off through Indiana and California:
“Provided he dominates in the Northeast as expected, Mr. Trump will have a good chance to win the nomination if he can carry Indiana. Without it, it’s very difficult for him to reach 1,237. He would either have to win nearly all of California’s delegates or win a state where he’s an underdog — most likely Montana — and post a clear win in California. It’s possible, but it’s hard to see how he would be poised to do either of those things if he’s losing in Indiana.
If Mr. Trump wins big in the Northeast, carries Indiana and picks up a few proportional delegates in New Mexico, Oregon and Washington (as he is all but assured to do), the race will come down to California on June 7.
It’s too far away to be very confident about whether Mr. Trump would have a realistic chance to win the 70 percent or so of California delegates that he would need to win an outright majority.
But, at least right now, it looks realistic.
Three top-tier pollsters have shown that Mr. Trump could pull it off: the vaunted Field Poll, a Los Angeles Times/U.S.C. poll conducted by the prominent Democratic firm GQR and a poll by the Public Policy Institute of California. The three polls found Mr. Trump ahead by 7, 1 and 11 points among likely Republican voters, with Mr. Trump winning between 36 and 38 percent of the vote.”
MSNBC say’s Pennsylvania could be the state that could stop an open convention. Here are the MSNBC highlights;
“At issue is Pennsylvania, which votes on April 26. Officially, only 17 delegates are directly at stake in that contest. They will go to the winner of the primary statewide. The other 54 are unbound delegates. They will run under their own names on the ballot, and if they are selected as delegates they will be free agents in Cleveland, free to vote for any candidate they want. Because Cruz has done well with unbound delegates in other states (like Colorado and North Dakota, where there was a premium on organizing), many are assuming that Pennsylvania’s unbound delegate bloc will be a problem area for Trump. It actually could be a major source of strength for him.
Here’s what we know. 162 Republicans are running for the 54 unbound slots in Pennsylvania, and 127 of them – so far – have replied to a survey from the Pittsburgh Tribune review. More than half of them are now saying that if elected as delegates they will simply vote for the candidate who wins their district. Another 20 say they’ll vote for Trump and 13 more say they are uncommitted (with several of them indicating that the results in their district will factor into their decision). Only 20 unbound delegate candidates in Pennsylvania now say they’d back Cruz, and only one is leaning toward Kasich.
Then there’s this: A new poll shows Trump winning Pennsylvania overwhelmingly, 48 percent, to 22 for Kasich and 20 for Cruz. If that holds, then the pressure to keep their word will be intense on those unbound delegates who are now pledging to honor the will of the voters. True, they could technically change their minds and join a movement to stop Trump anyway. But remember, many of these delegate candidates are party leaders who will have to deal with their district’s Republican voters long after this primary is over. If they are now pledging to honor the will of those voters and those voters then turn around and back Trump by a wide margin, there’d be serious blowback potential for any delegate who then reneges on a vow to honor the results in his or her district.
Under the scenario outlined above, Trump would finish the primary season 44 delegates short of the magic number. But that doesn’t count Pennsylvania’s 54 unbound delegates, and Trump – at least right now – is well-positioned to gobble up the lion’s share of them. That could be just enough to put him over the top and avoid a contested convention.” Read in Full