Delegate fights are going on as I write this. I am seeing headlines all over the place tonight about Wyoming & Georgia delegate fights, and folks, its not pretty. But I am writing this to remind of us a few things, and one of those being that we are not without hope!
The other one being that YOUR VOTE IS PRICELESS!
The delegate battles are not new. I am just going to leave a few links below to touch on some of the delegate fights that we have reported on (and some others have reported on as well) :
— MicroChip (@WDFx2EU) April 11, 2016
Now let’s look at those rigged machines. It’s amazing to me how the American people are just waking up to the rigged machines. There are people who have been fighting the use of these machines for a VERY long time.
I did do an article on these machines with a ton of data and lots of videos. The videos include even a test done at Princeton University and an HBO documentary done in 2006!
That article and videos are at the link below:
After all of that, you are probably thinking “how in the world are we supposed to have hope?”!
First, let’s make sure that we understand the delegates actions at the National Convention and their responsibility to the winner of the popular vote of their particular state.
At this point in the process, Donald Trump has won 755 delegates, and Ted Cruz has 559 delegates. I am only going to be looking at those two right now. In order for a candidate to win the nomination BEFORE the National Convention and avoid a Brokered Convention, a candidate must reach at least one more than half of the available delegates. AT this point, that magic number is 1237.
We have 16 states that have not voted yet. States vary on how delegates are awarded in their elections. Some states award delegates on a “winner take all” basis and some are awarded “proportionally”. Real Clear Politics has a table that shows state by state rules in how the delegates are awarded. The states that have yet to have their election are New York, Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Indianan, Nebraska, West Virginia, Oregon, Washington, South Dakota, New Mexico, New Jersey, Montana and California. The total of available delegates from these elections to take place yet is 769.
The way that we have hope is that in 10 days Ted Cruz is going to be basically shut out of being able to be awarded enough delegates to win the nomination before the Convention in Cleveland!
As we continue, you will be able to see why, if you live in one of the states that has not had their election yet, YOUR VOTE IS PRICELESS! Do not let the media discourage you into thinking that your vote does not count. Don’t let the GOP discourage you by their dirty tricks into thinking that your vote does not count – because not only does it count, but YOUR VOTE IS PRICELESS!
Clock Winds Down on Cruz Campaign: 10 Days Until Elimination
On April 2nd we predicted that even with a Wisconsin win, Cruz would be mathematically unable to reach the delegate count required for him to win the Republican Presidential nomination by the end of April. “Actually” we noted, “in only 3 weeks, on April 26th, Cruz will be no longer able to win enough delegates to win the Republican nomination.”
The delegate count now looks much worse for Senator Cruz.
Shortly before Wisconsin Cruz had 463 delegates and Trump 736, now two weeks later Cruz has 545 and Trump 755. Cruz picked up less delegates than we predicted in Wisconsin (36 to 40) but he did manage to ‘gain’ delegates in Colorado in the shady ‘voter-less’contest Real Clear Politics calls a caucus.
Below is our estimate of the delegate count by the end of April as reported April 2nd –
It seems that the Colorado debacle may have hurt Cruz more than it helped him. Trump is leading in all of the East Coast states coming up for election – New York 53% (+32), Pennsylvania 43% (+16), Maryland 40% (+14),Connecticut 50% (+24) with no recent data from Rhode Island and Delaware. Based on the current poll data and assuming Rhode Island and Delaware are consistent with their sister states, it looks like Trump could win all the delegates in New York, Connecticut, Delaware and Maryland based on the primary rules in these states while cleaning up in the other two.
Ted Cruz is currently polling in third place in all these states except Pennsylvania.
As we noted on the 2nd, “Even if Cruz wins a third of the delegates in Rhode Island or Connecticut or any of these states, it will not be enough to keep him mathematically in the race.”
Now it looks like Cruz will not only be mathematically eliminated from obtaining enough delegates to win the election outright by April 26th, he may also have fallen to third place in the polls by the end of April, too.
Based on current conservative estimates, come April 26th, Cruz will need 657 delegates to win the election but only 585 will be left leaving him mathematically out of the race.
Trump will only need 279 delegates or less than 50% of the delegates remaining to win the nomination.
And according to our conservative estimates – Trump should gain 1237 delegates by June 7th making him the Republican nominee.
So as you can see, in ten days Ted Cruz’s only hope of winning the nomination will be to win it in a Brokered Convention on the Second or Third Ballot.
So now do you see why YOUR VOTE IS PRICELESS? We have to get Donald Trump over the magic number of 1237 BEFORE the National Convention in Cleveland!
But, now do you see why we have so much hope? We ARE MILLIONS!!