Great news for Trump supporters and even if they don’t realize it yet Americans in general. According to calculations made by the CookPoliticalReport, Donald Trump should have 1,400 delegates by June 7th!
Donald Trump’s breathtaking romp through the Northeast corridor on Tuesday points to a fundamental shift in the GOP race. Once thought of as a candidate with a low ceiling, Trump won all but eight of the 119 bound delegates at stake in Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island. His smallest margin of victory was 30 points, and he carried all 34 congressional districts and all 107 counties.
For the first time since mid-March, he’s ahead of where we estimate he needs to be to reach 1,237 delegates and clinch the GOP nomination. In fact, current polling in the remaining ten states is consistent with a scenario in which Trump could capture as many as 1,400 delegates by June 7. Indiana is now a must win for Ted Cruz and the #NeverTrump movement, but the odds of a contested convention have dramatically declined.
Trump’s Pace Over Time
There’s even evidence news of Cruz and John Kasich’s “deal” to divvy up remaining turf backfired with this week’s voters: on April 19, favorite son Trump won an average of 57 percent in the New York counties bordering Pennsylvania. A week later, Trump averaged 63 percent in Pennsylvania counties bordering New York. That wasn’t supposed to happen, and suggests more GOP voters are beginning to rally around their front-runner.
Any Republican would need to capture 1,237 of 2,472 delegates to the Cleveland convention to clinch the Republican nomination. To help you keep track of who’s ahead, the Cook Political Report has devised a delegate scorecard estimating how many delegates each of the leading GOP contenders would need to win in each state and territory to attain 1,237 delegates by June.
Right now, Trump has won 956 bound delegates. But if you include 32 additional “unbound” delegates from Pennsylvania and other states that have publicly stated their support for Trump, Trump would only need 249 additional delegates – or 50 percent of the 502 remaining delegates – to reach 1,237. Sizing up the remaining states, he’s extremely likely to get there.
The RNC’s winner-take-all rules mean Trump is likely to continue to draw overwhelming delegate shares even if he wins simple pluralities in most of the remaining 10 states. Trump is likely to win all of New Jersey’s 51 delegates, and at this rate he’s likely to win the overwhelming share of delegates in California (172) and West Virginia (34). Those states alone provide 257 delegates – more than enough.
Trump is also likely to win his fair share of delegates in New Mexico, Oregon and Washington, which allocate a total of 96 delegates on a proportional basis. He also has a chance to win Montana’s 27 winner-take-all districts. In other words, he could get to 1,237 even without winning Indiana, Nebraska or South Dakota.
Barring some earth-shattering event in the final month of the primary calendar, Trump will be the Republican nominee without a contested convention.