Yes, it really is happening. We are watching the Cruz campaign crumble before our very eyes.
We are seeing Trump’s polls climb higher, Cruz’s favorability drop like a rock, his aides are becoming nervous and his delegates that were won by his dirty tricks and backroom deals are beginning to peel away and rethinking their positions.
Cruz’s lies have caught up with him. His mask is finally coming off. We have been talking for months about how Cruz is the Establishment candidate and people are finally starting to see through the murky water of his lies to see the truth.
His lying has become more and more brazen. What it shows me is that he truly believes that Cruz supporters are the low info voters, because he expects them to purely ignore his “gaslighting” of them.
So let’s get down to the details of how Cruz’s campaign is crumbling. Last night we talked about his favorability ratings, which according to Gallup, are now 16 pts below Trump’s!
Today we can see a new poll out from WSJ – NBC news that shows that he has opened up a 15pt lead.
So let’s see what PPP has to say :
We've found this in every state we've polled the last month https://t.co/nQmBhqLlra
— PublicPolicyPolling (@ppppolls) April 30, 2016
First night of WV poll- Fiorina favorability under water, only about 10% say she makes them more likely to vote for Cruz, 35% less likely
— PublicPolicyPolling (@ppppolls) April 30, 2016
(And WV looking like another 60% plus possible state for Trump)
— PublicPolicyPolling (@ppppolls) April 30, 2016
In interviews, several aides, speaking on the condition of anonymity, expressed growing alarm that Cruz would lose Indiana’s primary on Tuesday — an outcome that would be a major blow to his hopes of holding Trump below the 1,237 delegates needed to clinch the GOP nomination on the party convention’s first ballot. The aides concede that, without a win in an Indiana primary where 57 delegates are at stake, Cruz’s shot at the nomination would significantly narrow.
Within the campaign, some are turning to the question of what’s next. One senior aide said there had been no discussion about dropping out before the final primary contests are held on June 7 but noted that Cruz wouldn’t be eager to prolong a campaign he was convinced he couldn’t win.
Many top figures in the party are convinced that a loss on Tuesday would be, for all intents and purposes, the end of the road. “A Cruz loss in Indiana means lights out,” said Scott Reed, the chief political strategist for the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. “Game, set, match.”
The private angst within the campaign stands in stark contrast to public statements from Cruz himself, as the candidate showed no hint of concern in an appearance before the California Republican Party convention here on Saturday.
So let’s talk a little bit about Cruz’s act of desperation in naming his VP – Carly Fiorina. We reported yesterday, that this act is fruitless and is nothing more than for “optics” (which aren’t good anyway) because at a Contested Convention, the delegates choose the VP, not the candidate.
In a new Indiana Poll, 58% of the people disapproved of the Cruz / Kasich alliance (which Cruz is now denying ever existed – another lie). I think this is a YUUUGE part of the rumbling and crumbling of the Cruz campaign. People are sick and tired of the “backroom deals” to try and get their way against the will of the people and against the best interests of America. Cruz is notorious for these types of deals. After all, he did vote for TPA, the vehicle that gives Obama executive power on TPP and he did vote for the Corker amendment, which also gave Obama executive power on the Iran Nuke Deal.
Just as he did with the TPA and the Iran Nuke Deal, in denying his support of them – he is now denying that this “alliance” with Kasich ever existed. It truly boggles the mind how he can lie like this and his supporters just are blinded to it. Let’s look at this Cruz / Kasich alliance just a little bit closer to see the extent of the lying that is going on :
First there was actually statements from each of the campaigns announcing the “alliance to take down Trump” :
Kasich & Cruz camps release concurrent statements agreeing Cruz will focus on Indiana, and Kasich on Oregon and NM – pic.twitter.com/vN5hma3zPC
— Kailani Koenig (@kailanikm) April 25, 2016
The next thing we saw was Cruz going behind Kasich’s back and telling his supporters to vote for him anyway in a “confidential” email that was leaked. We did an entire story on this because we found it so… Cruz-like.
Cruz even discussed this alliance on Hannity’s show. Video below :
That video on Sean Hannity’s show was done on Monday. My what a difference just a few short days can make. Now Cruz is saying that there was never an alliance.
It never ceases to amaze me that Cruz thinks he can lie like this and people will not notice. But, I believe that people are starting to notice and that is why his campaign is crumbling, like the proverbial cookie!
Let’s take a look at what is going on with the delegates that he won in all of those “voterless” elections and even in the states where there were elections and he got creamed! Both the National Review and the New York Times have stories on delegates being ready to peel away from Cruz today.
The National Review says :
“I think [last Tuesday’s vote] spooked a lot of people,” says Jim Poolman, a North Dakota delegate who had previously committed to a first-ballot convention vote for Cruz. “But I want to be clear, I think the will of the people does mean something, as well,” he says. “Donald Trump has gotten a lot of support across the country, and just [last Tuesday], winning five [states] is one heckuva showing.” Poolman now says he will opt to see how the remaining primaries play out, and is “not necessarily” a first-ballot vote for Cruz.
He’s not alone. Of the ten North Dakota delegates on the Cruz slate reached by National Review, five express serious reservations about backing the Texas senator on that crucial first ballot.
“I have to admit I’ve been vacillating,” says David Hogue, a state senator and Cruz-approved delegate who insists he’s “firmly uncommitted.”
Hogue’s senate colleague Dick Dever is also getting cold feet. “What I have said is I’m leaning towards Cruz, but I’m not committed to anybody,” he says. “And after [Tuesday’s vote], I think Trump has the momentum going forward.” Dever was impressed by the way Trump broke fifty percent in all five of last Tuesday’s primaries, after relying on pluralities to propel him to victory in previous contests. And he finds it just as telling that Cruz lost to John Kasich in all but one of those contests. “I think that was a real shift,” he says.
With Trump on a winning streak that’s seen his popularity and electoral success continue to grow past the long-assumed “ceiling” of 35 to 40 percent of the Republican electorate, many North Dakota delegates who privately support Cruz are rethinking the wisdom of challenging the real-estate mogul’s commanding lead on the convention floor. Rick Becker, a former North Dakota gubernatorial candidate who is still loyal to Cruz, says one delegate who he believes would like to support Cruz is nevertheless warning peers about the damage they could do to the party’s November prospects by angering the millions of voters who support Trump. Continue reading here…
The New York Times writes:
Even as Donald J. Trump trounced him from New Hampshire to Florida to Arizona, Senator Ted Cruz could reassure himself with one crucial advantage: He was beating Mr. Trump in the obscure, internecine delegate fights that could end up deciding the Republican nomination for president.
“This is how elections are won in America,” Mr. Cruz gloated after walking away with the most delegates in Wyoming last month.
Now, as he faces a potentially candidacy-threatening contest on Tuesday in Indiana — where a new NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist poll, released Sunday morning, showed him trailing Mr. Trump by 15 percentage points — Mr. Cruz can take little solace from his vaunted delegate-wrangling operation even if he prevails there.
It turns out that delegates — like ordinary voters — are susceptible to shifts in public opinion. And as the gravitational pull of Mr. Trump’s recent primary landslides draws more Republicans toward him, Mr. Cruz’s support among the party’s 2,472 convention delegates is softening, threatening his hopes of preventing Mr. Trump’s nomination by overtaking him in a floor fight.
With each delegate Mr. Trump claims, he gets closer to the 1,237 he needs to clinch the nomination outright, and Mr. Cruz’s chances of stopping him — even with an upset victory in Indiana — shrink.
Before Mr. Trump’s crushing victory in Pennsylvania last week, Mr. Cruz’s campaign boasted that it had 69 people devoted to acquiring as many as possible of the state’s 54 unbound delegates — who are free to vote as they please on the first ballot, making them potentially decisive players in a contested convention.
Mr. Cruz won only three.
In North Dakota, where the Cruz campaign declared victory after the state Republican convention on April 3 and declared that it had won “a vast majority” of the state’s 28 unbound delegates, Mr. Cruz’s support appears to be weakening. In interviews, delegates said he really had only about a dozen firm commitments to begin with, and some of them appear to be wavering as he falls farther behind Mr. Trump.
And in states across the South, which was supposed to be Mr. Cruz’s bulwark, some delegates are now echoing a growing sentiment inside the Republican Party: a sense of resignation to the idea that Mr. Trump will be their standard-bearer.
“Honestly, we didn’t think he could get this far. And he did,” Jonathan Barnett, the Republican national committeeman for Arkansas, said of Mr. Trump. Mr. Barnett, who supported former Gov. Mike Huckabee’s failed campaign, said his focus had shifted to winning in November, even if that meant unhappily falling in behind Mr. Trump.
The changes of heart have little to do with any epiphany about Mr. Trump’s electability or his campaign’s recent efforts to cast him in a more serious light. Instead, delegates and party officials said, they are ready to move on and unite behind someone so that Republicans are not hopelessly divided heading into the general election.
And many delegates cite concerns about whether Mr. Cruz is really a better choice. “There’s just as many people that would question whether they could get behind Cruz,” Mr. Barnett said.
This gradual acquiescence points up a larger flaw with Mr. Cruz’s strategy of being the last non-Trump candidate standing in a field that began at 17: It was never as much about him as about Republicans grasping for a more palatable alternative to Mr. Trump.
But the “never” in the “Never Trump” movement is beginning to look more like a “reluctantly.”
“I’m not in the anybody-but-Trump campaign,” said Jim Poolman, a delegate from North Dakota. “I’m in the anybody-but-Hillary campaign.” Mr. Poolman said he still planned to vote for Mr. Cruz on the first ballot, which he told the campaign he would do. But he said his decision was not set in stone. “I’m trying to hold on to my commitment but still be pragmatic,” he said. “There’s a lot of stuff that could happen before Cleveland. And I know that makes me sound squishy, but I don’t mean it that way.”
Delegates like Mr. Poolman are emblematic of the Cruz campaign’s larger problems holding on to votes at a contested convention.
Mr. Poolman initially favored Senator Marco Rubio of Florida, who withdrew from the race in March. While Mr. Poolman was looking for another candidate, he said, local Cruz volunteers asked if they could add his name to the list of delegate candidates supporting Mr. Cruz at the state convention. He said Mr. Cruz’s wife, Heidi, called him and gave him her cellphone number, saying he would always have “a direct line to the campaign.” And he was elected a delegate.
But now, Mr. Poolman said, he worries about party disunity and what it could mean for Republicans in November. “My goal, personally,” he said, “is to not let our convention become a circus.”
The chairman of the North Dakota Republican Party, Kelly Armstrong, said Mr. Cruz’s appeal remained strong there, but put his support among the state’s 28 unbound delegates at “at least 10” — not quite the “vast majority” the Cruz campaign had claimed.
Mr. Armstrong, who has not taken sides, said delegates also had to consider how denying the nomination to Mr. Trump might look to his supporters. “We can’t have a bunch of people really, really upset about the process and then think we’re going to be able to gain their support in November,” he said.
The results in Pennsylvania were most troubling for Mr. Cruz. He had dominated the delegate fights in Colorado and Wyoming, contests that were influenced by the kinds of party activists Mr. Cruz tends to attract. Yet Mr. Trump appeared to win at least 40 of Pennsylvania’s 54 unbound delegates. “There’s not going to be a second ballot,” said Ash Khare, who was elected last Tuesday as an unbound Pennsylvania delegate. Mr. Khare declined to support any candidate before the election, though Mr. Cruz, Mr. Trump and Gov. John Kasich of Ohio all came calling, he said. “I was promised a photo, a private meeting. Forget about it,” Mr. Khare said, adding that he only ever intended to vote for the candidate who won in his district.
That would be Mr. Trump. Mr. Khare said he was not especially drawn to anything about Mr. Trump or his ideas. “Whether he will succeed or not, I don’t know,” he said. But he said he could not deny the will of so many voters. “There is a revolution going on here,” he added. Continue reading here
So you see, it is not just wishful thinking on this Trump supporter’s part! The Cruz campaign truly is crumbling like that proverbial cookie!