Donald Trump Will Win The Nomination On June 7th

As we previously reported Donald Trump is on pace to get 1400 delegates by June 7th. The Gateway Pundidit Reports;

In exactly one month on June 7th billionaire businessman Donald Trump will clinch the Republican Presidential nomination by surpassing 1,237 delegates – the amount necessary to clinch the nomination.  It is inevitable he will surpass this number on June 7th because of his current delegate count and the number of delegates awarded through this day.

Delegate Count 5-7 Chart

New Jersey will probably be the first state to announce its results on June 7th as it is the only East Coast state with an election on that day.  Currently Trump is up by 41% in New Jersey.  If Trump wins all the delegates between now and June 7th he will surpass 1,237 delegates as a result of the New Jersey primary results. 

And, according to an analysis by The Washington Times Donald Trump is on track to win the nomination on the first ballot.

ANALYSIS:

Donald Trump was only a tad presumptuous when on April 26 he said, “I consider myself the presumptive nominee — absolutely.”

The boastful billionaire actually does appear on his way to owning the 1,237 first-ballot votes needed to win the nomination, according to The Washington Times state-by-state delegate-allocation analysis.

Astoundingly, it looks like the Donald can get to a majority without any unbound but voluntarily committed delegates added to his total.

Going into Indiana’s Tuesday primary, the TV showman of “you’re fired” fame is short of a majority by a bit over 200 bound delegates — that is, delegates allocated to him based on state primaries or caucuses.

delegates1

He now has to win those 200 in the final 10 GOP presidential nomination contests. But even if he missed the mark by 100 or fewer, it’s now considered likely that enough unbound delegates will back him rather than see the convention descend into multiballot war.

Not that the depth of disdain for Mr. Trump has at all waned among the #NeverTrump conservatives. Columnist George Will, for example, thundered Saturday that a “convention’s sovereign duty is to choose a plausible nominee who has a reasonable chance to win, not to passively affirm the will of a mere plurality of voters recorded episodically in a protracted process.”

But to the likely displeasure of Mr. Will and his ilk, The Times analysis understates Mr. Trump’s probable final haul by as many as 78 delegates because it excludes unbound delegates, including those in Pennsylvania and elsewhere, who have said they plan to vote for him.

In other words, this chart has him over the top even though it counts only delegates he has won outright in various state primaries, caucuses and conventions.

Under state parties’ rules, these delegates are bound as tight as mummies to Mr. Trump for the first ballot. They can renounce Mr. Trump and say they really support Ted Cruz — or anyone else. Even if a #NeverTrump delegate doesn’t show up to be counted at the vast Cleveland hall in July, when the convention secretary records each state’s tally, the delegates bound to a candidate go to him.

Jim Ellis, a delegate-allocation expert and political adviser to then-House Majority Leader Tom DeLay, said Mr. Trump’s performance in the five primaries last Tuesday and the latest Indiana polls now point strongly to a first-ballot win.

On June 7 California will in effect have 54 separate GOP presidential nomination contests, with three delegates going to the winner in each of the state’s 53 congressional districts, and 10 “at-large” delegates going to whoever wins the most votes statewide.

“Trump will need to capture the California statewide vote and 31 of the 53 congressional districts,” Mr. Ellis said. That result would give him a total of 103 bound California delegates.

There’s an even brighter scenario for Mr. Trump mapped out by former Republican National Committee Treasurer Randy Pullen, whose count includes unbound delegates who are known to have committed to one or another candidate.

For example, Mr. Pullen grants Mr. Trump all Pennsylvania’s 54 technically uncommitted delegates because “he won every congressional district in the state on Tuesday.”

Many of those running for delegate slots in Pennsylvania said they would vote, at least on the first ballot, for the winner of their district. Others ran as delegates committed to Mr. Trump.

In the Pullen projection, Mr. Trump also wins more California congressional districts for a total haul of 120 delegates. Mr. Pullen’s state-by-state chart has Mr. Trump’s total haul at 1,315 delegates.

“I have had Trump winning 1,237 for two months, and Trump had consistently outperformed my projections,” he said.

Mr. Trump will be the “presumptive nominee, with more than 1,300 confirmed delegates after June 7,” Mr. Pullen said. “This number will swell as we approach the convention. Cruz will be 500 delegates short on June 7, and Kasich will be lost in the rearview mirror.”

Continue reading.

 

 

  • Acecool

    Too many annoying emails being sent and besides, the name “STUMPIN”? Who’s the moron that come up with that one? cause it somehow rhymes with Trump? sounds more like a procedure used on a bloody AMPUTEE.

    • Miss Annie

      Well I am the moron that came up with the name. It stems from the “old days” where the candidates and the campaigners used to stand on tree stumps so they could be seen and heard by the crowds. Then they moved to trailers and tailgates of trucks.
      What emails are you getting? I run this site and if it is sending out spam or anything like it, that is a very big deal to me.

      • Acecool

        My sincere apologies; I stopped smoking cigarettes 3 days ago (when I wrote that) and everything seems very irritating and annoying if not down right maddening to me right now. I think I know what it’s like to have turrets syndrome now. Again, my bad and truly sorry. (YIKES!!!)

        • Miss Annie

          I thought the comment was “out of character” for you. I had seen your comments before. That’s why I answered it instead of just deleting! I smoke about a pack of short Marlboro reds a day. Not only do you have my complete forgiveness, but my utmost respect too! Good for you!! I KNOW exactly what you are going through. I quit for about 3 months in 2005. The ONLY thing that really helped with the “madness” was short spurts of exercise when it got really bad. I would lock myself in my bedroom for five minutes and drop and do about 40 pushups. That helped take away what I call “the spins”. The spins feel like you are the tazmanian devil with a ton of tude!
          How about those emails though? If you subscribed, you should be getting one email for every article that is published, but no more than that! I don’t send out “newsletters” or jabbery crap. Let me know if you are getting more than published articles!
          Blessings and keep up the good work! Oh yea,… raw celery helped too! 🙂

          • Acecool

            Thanks a ton for your understanding. GOD!!! Somebody that knows what I’m going through, especially on the computer. Know that I’ll be trying out your suggestions, like eating raw celery. I’ve never heard anyone articulate as well as you have on nico fits, but I simply love it! Taz with a ton of tude! right on the money honey! Hey! if being as cool as you is moronic, then it’s hella good to be a moron!!! Thank God I didn’t refer to you as…….um, forget it! Temp bouts of “LET ME OUTA HERE!!! and barely getting 3-4 hrs of sleep these past few days.

            Today is the 5th day. Crunching Celery as I speak! Yes, I just happen to have some. I may even go out and cut me down a tree, so I can tell it on the mountain! TRUMP 2016

            btw, ex-choker setter for Timberline logging (Grass Valley, Calif). Go figure! Stumpin’ For Trump!!! GOT IT MISS ANNIE 😀

            btw, No worries on the emails. I just had a panic attack. 😉

          • Miss Annie

            Not a problem at all! I am going to be walking in your shoes soon! I really need to quit too. Nothing like the thought of quitting smoking to trigger the rising up on the chicken shit in me though. LOL

          • Acecool

            Realizing this is off topic, but you really owe it to yourself Miss Annie. Now going into my 9th day, and experiencing an increase of more “natural” energy. I don’t feel so easily agitated or stressed over the little things and without the quick puff or two, no longer feeling like I just clouded my brain with a smoke cloud pacifier (artificial nicotine stupifier / forced temporary dopamine neurotransmitter effect).

            I’m sleeping much better, feeling more oxygen intake with less breathing during physical labor and breathing easier. Although a form of vanity, I look much better in the mirror these days as opposed to looking washed out and empty. My appetite has increased a bit, but only for the first few days. Make sure you have lots of CELERY! Your advice really worked for me 🙂

            Your health, happiness and longevity of life depends on it (not to mention loss of brain cells you’ll need when you’re older). The best part is, psychologically, you’ll feel more confident, less easily agitated over simple things and over all, an improved sense of self worth and self esteem. Conquering this habit will put you back in the controllers seat.

            If you can beat this? You can beat anything! Know that you are NOT ALONE! It’s also VERY VERY IMPORTANT you stay away from people who smoke. Don’t even let them into your home. Otherwise, you’ll eventually end up smoking again. It all starts with bumming a cig, just one won’t hurt, then it’s another, then another.

            btw, You’ll still have that Taz Tude of energy, but it becomes more positive. You won’t feel the spins, but you will feel like dancing. If you have pets, they’ll love you for it. 🙂

            Why the long rant? You truly helped me when nobody else would and I’m returning the favor. it’s that important. If you truly love yourself and others, show them by example, you don’t need anything but your own self determination, the power within to take control of your own life, the will, wisdom and courage God endowed you with and the intelligence to do the right thing. You owe it to yourself! I know you can!