Trump’s Chances Of Beating Hillary Are Pretty Good

Today it is being reported that Donald Trump is deadlocked with Hillary Clinton in the swing states of Pennsylvania, Florida and Ohio. To hear the #NeverTrump crowd tell it, Donald Trump is viewed in an unfavorable light and Hillary will beat him in a landslide. Don’t let them kid you 72% of Republicans are comfortable with Trump as the nominee. The #NeverTrump crowd is laughable considering none of the establishment GOP candidates could beat Trump let alone Hillary. The presidential matchups show:

  • Florida – Clinton at 43 percent, with 42 percent for Trump and Sanders at 44 percent to Trump’s 42 percent;
  • Ohio – Trump edges Clinton 43 – 39 percent, while Sanders gets 43 percent to Trump’s 41 percent;
  • Pennsylvania – Clinton at 43 percent to Trump’s 42 percent, while Sanders leads Trump 47 – 41 percent.

“Six months from Election Day, the presidential races between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump in the three most crucial states, Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, are too close to call,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac Poll. “At this juncture, Trump is doing better in Pennsylvania than the GOP nominees in 2008 and 2012. And the two candidates are about where their party predecessors were at this point in Ohio and Florida.”

Roger Stone writes;

“What they are missing are the millions of new voters and donors Trump has brought to the party, with the GOP contest drawing two million more voters than the rather boring Hillary v. Bernie bout.  It is important to note that in 2012, a change in just 700,000 votes in five states would have changed the outcome of the election.

Analytics show there are 1 million unregistered Trump supporters. In Colorado, Iowa, Florida, Michigan, Nevada, New Jersey, Ohio, Virginia, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, Trump will have the resources to sign them up. This is where elections are won.”

In a new NBC Survey Trump is ahead of Hillary with Independent voters.

We reported in the past Democrat’s are Ditching and Switching to Trump.  The Washington Times is also reporting that Trump continues to win over Democrats in Blue Northeastern States.

“Katie Nimon, 22, a registered Democrat who waits tables here at Otto’s Kitchen & Cocktails, said she voted for Sen. Bernard Sanders in the primary but plans to cast her ballot for Donald Trump in November if he faces likely Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton.

“Time after time she has proved to be a manipulative liar,” said Ms. Nimon, who also studies international relations at York College.

The same solid support for Mr. Trump was heard in nearby Delaware, which, like Pennsylvania, hasn’t voted for a Republican since George H.W. Bush won the White House in 1988.

“There’s a lot of Trump support here because a lot of people are like me — sick and tired of the way things are,” said Donna Pusey, 64, a barber and registered Democrat who vowed to vote for Mr. Trump in November.

Ms. Pusey said she sat out the Democratic primary because she would “rather get run over by a semi” than chose between Mrs. Clinton and Mr. Sanders.”

This Primary Model report is actually a few months old. but that doesn’t diminish it’s importance or change the outcome.

I would have missed it had I not seen the tweet above. Via U.S. News & World Report:

The odds are ever in Donald Trump’s favor.

Helmut Norpoth, a professor of political science at Stony Brook University, has developed a statistical model that predicts a 97 percent to 99 percent chance that Trump will win the 2016 presidential election if he wins the Republican nomination, The Blaze reports.

Norpoth’s model has correctly predicted the outcome of every single presidential election since 1912 – save one, the election of 1960, which some believe was rigged. It uses a candidate’s performance in their party’s primary coupled with electoral cycle patterns to determine the likely outcome of the general election.

If Hillary Clinton goes against Trump, the chance of a President Trump is 97 percent, according to the model. If Bernie Sanders wins the Democratic nomination instead, the chances for a Trump victory jump further, to 99 percent.

If the nominee is not Trump, the model predicts that there is still a 61 percent overall chance that a Republican will win the White House, The Statesman reports.

“This is almost too much to believe,” Norpoth said in a presentation Monday at SUNY Global Center in Manhattan. “Take it to the bank.”

  • William LaSalle

    Islam gave us the damn Ottomans and Barbary Pirates, the Slave Trade, the Dark Ages, World War 1, most of the war and Terrorism in our world, and Obama and Valerie Jarrett.