Public Policy Polling (PPP) conducted a poll of Georgia voters (full pdf below) to estimate the possibility of a state balance shift. Unfortunately for the Clinton narrative the results show Donald Trump beating Hillary Clinton by 9 points (49/40).
The poll framework wasn’t helpful for Bernie Sanders either. Trump beats Sanders by 8 points (48-40).
In a three person race:
Donald Trump 45% – Hillary Clinton 38% – Gary Johnson 6%
PPP conducted the poll in Georgia because the DNC electoral strategy against Trump is weighing the possibility of losing some Mid-West states (blue states turn red: PA, OH, WI, MI) and they were hoping for a narrative where high demographic minority voters could change red states to blue. Hence, Georgia.
In essence the thinking was/is: if Trump can take Pennsylvania, can Clinton offset by winning Georgia – via a high population of *black voters? The answer, at least within this poll, is no.
[*note* 30% of the poll respondents were black, 62% white, 8% latino]
Interestingly this is the first PPP poll showing Bernie Sanders actually doing worse against Trump than Hillary Clinton; and this poll is racially centric. It’s a small sample overall, and it’s only one state, but more minority voters support Trump when the alternative is Sanders. This should be kept in mind because even Van Jones calls this the “Bling Effect”.
Bottom line: Georgia remains solidly a red state with Donald Trump in the race; and Trump defeats either Democrat candidate regardless of who it is. This type of data and determination helps the DNC plan where to spend their resources.
The DNC will be expending considerable defensive resources in Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Michigan, Ohio, and Wisconsin already because Trump is polling very strong in those previously uncontested blue states.
However, if polling in Oregon is accurate, and if Trump can pressure California, the DNC will have to go further and spend almost all of their time and money on defense; trying to retain states and not expanding them.
Look for PPP to focus attention toward FL and OH/PA next.
Public Policy Polling surveyed 724 registered voters from May 27th to 30th. The margin of error is +/3.6%. 80% of participants, selected through a list based sample, responded via the phone, while 20% of respondents who did not have landlines conducted the survey over the internet through an opt-in internet panel (link)
Here is the full poll :